Uriel Loredo

Week of April 27 to May 1

Stable rates, persistent inflation, and uneven growth define the week

Markets reflect stability in monetary policy, but with increasing divergence in growth and inflation. The geopolitical backdrop continues to pressure expectations and limit global economic visibility.

United States

The Fed held rates at 3.5%–3.75% with an 8–4 split, the largest since 1992. GDP grew 2.0%, driven by AI investment and government spending, but consumption is slowing. Confidence improved, though inflation pressures persist.

Europe

The ECB and BoE held rates but warned of inflation risks from energy. Inflation rose to 3%, while Germany’s economy grew 0.3%, reflecting modest expansion close to stagnation.

Japan

The BoJ kept rates at 0.75% amid internal division over inflation concerns. Retail sales rose 1.7%, driven by the automotive sector, signaling a gradual recovery in consumption.

China

Manufacturing PMI reached its highest level in a year. However, rising input costs from energy and metals are pressuring margins and the sustainability of growth.

Argentina

Fitch Ratings and Moody’s maintain a cautious outlook, highlighting risks from persistent inflation, institutional weakness, and reliance on fiscal adjustment.

Brazil

The central bank cut rates to 14.50%, supported by lower-than-expected inflation (4.37%). The easing cycle continues despite global uncertainty.

Mexico

GDP declined 0.8% in 1Q, with broad-based weakness. Despite record exports (+27.7%), external strength has yet to translate into domestic growth.

“All intelligent investing is value investing. Acquiring more than you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock.” – Charlie Munger

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS

• In the United States, Services PMI will be released on 05/05
• In the United States, nonfarm payrolls will be released on 05/08

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Note: Returns as of April 30th at closing.

Week of April 20–24

Market stability, energy pressures, and mixed growth signals shaped the week.

Markets remained stable amid signs of easing geopolitical tensions. However, risks related to energy, inflation, and slowing growth persist across regions.

United States

Stable markets and strong consumption. A resilient labor market and tariff refunds support the outlook, while the Fed remains cautious.

Europe

Energy pressures push prices higher as investor confidence declines. Weak industrial signals contrast with some resilience in consumption.

Japan

Moderate inflation and strong export growth driven by technology demand, with pressure from higher energy imports.

China

Solid growth reduces the need for stimulus. Stable rates reflect confidence in current economic dynamics.

Argentina

Economic activity declines, led by weakness in manufacturing, highlighting a fragile economic environment.

Brazil

Positive export outlook, though dependent on the implementation of the EU trade agreement.

Mexico

Inflation moderates, but investment drops sharply. Consumption remains strong, reflecting a mixed economic outlook.

The week was shaped by diverging signals across regions. While the United States and China maintain positive dynamics, Europe and several emerging economies face structural challenges in energy, investment, and growth. Understanding these divergences is key to evaluating the global positioning of a portfolio.

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Source: Internal analysis based on market data as of April 24, 2025.

An introduction to this asset class

Private credit involves providing direct financing to companies outside the traditional banking system, with structures negotiated on a case-by-case basis. Its growth stems from post-crisis regulatory changes that limited banks’ ability to serve certain market segments, creating space for institutional investors and specialized managers to step in.

Appeal and considerations

Its primary appeal is the generation of recurring income through generally floating-rate instruments, which offer natural protection in high-rate environments. From a diversification standpoint, its low correlation with public assets can help reduce portfolio volatility. That said, it comes with lower liquidity and medium to long-term commitments.

Key factors to evaluate

Evaluating private credit requires attention to three factors: borrower quality, deal structure, and the stage of the economic cycle. Not all strategies are alike — some prioritize stability and income, while others take on higher risk in pursuit of greater returns. Identifying which approach aligns with portfolio objectives is the starting point for incorporating this asset class in a strategic way.

Source: JP Morgan

Week of April 13–17

Lower volatility, persistent inflation, and mixed growth signals shaped the week.

Markets experienced lower volatility amid expectations of easing geopolitical tensions. However, inflationary pressures persist alongside mixed growth signals across both developed and emerging economies.

United States

Lower volatility and the S&P 500 reached record highs. Moderate producer inflation and a resilient labor market support a growth environment with contained pressures.

Europe

Inflation rises due to energy, while industrial activity remains weak. The UK stands out with growth driven by services and construction.

Japan

Production grows marginally, and the BoJ may accelerate rate hikes. Slower growth is expected in the coming years.

China

Solid GDP growth, but mixed signals in consumption and employment point to an uneven recovery.

Argentina

Inflation remains elevated despite slight moderation, reflecting ongoing macroeconomic pressures.

Brazil

Consumption slows and industrial confidence declines, signaling deterioration in economic activity.

Mexico

Inflation pressures lead to price control measures. Trade risks rise amid potential changes to USMCA rules.

“Patience is not passive; it is concentrated strength.” – Bruce Lee

Key upcoming events

• Retail sales data to be released on April 21
• Employment-related data to be released on April 23

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Week of April 6–10

Inflation, energy dynamics, and geopolitical tensions shape the global markets outlook.

Markets are navigating a complex environment, with inflationary pressures tied to energy and ongoing geopolitical tensions weighing on growth prospects. The U.S. shows mixed signals, while Europe and emerging markets reflect slowing activity.

United States

Inflation rises on energy and the services PMI declines amid cost pressures. GDP is revised lower. The Fed keeps rate cuts on the table should inflation moderate or labor market conditions soften.

Europe

Producer inflation slows and consumption remains resilient. However, industrial orders and production in Germany point to economic stagnation.

Japan

Producer prices increase due to higher operating costs, reflecting pressure across industrial and transportation sectors.

China

Consumer inflation moderates, but producer prices rise driven by energy and raw materials, highlighting persistent cost pressures.

Argentina

Industrial production declines sharply across most sectors, reflecting broad-based economic weakness.

Brazil

Inflation rises, driven by fuel and food prices, amid global energy pressures.

Mexico

Inflation remains elevated and Banxico projects gradual convergence. Investment declines amid uncertainty and tight financial conditions.

“The longer you can extend your time horizon the less competitive the game becomes.” – Howard Marks

Key upcoming events

• In the United States, the Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released on 04/14
• In the United States, Industrial Production data will be released on 04/16

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Week of March 30 to April 3

Inflation, energy dynamics, and mixed growth signals shaped global markets.

Markets reflect a complex environment, with inflationary pressures, geopolitical-driven volatility, and mixed growth signals. The U.S. remains resilient, while Europe faces higher costs and emerging markets show signs of slowdown.

United States

A quieter week, but with mixed signals: solid consumption, softer labor momentum, and rising cost pressures. Recession risk increases amid higher oil prices and tensions with Iran.

Europe

Inflation rises driven by energy and remains above the ECB target. Unemployment is stable, but job creation slows. The UK shows moderate growth.

Japan

Stable labor market, but weak consumption. Retail sales decline despite fiscal support, highlighting fragile domestic demand.

China

Manufacturing PMI improves, supported by public spending and AI demand, though input cost pressures remain elevated.

Argentina

Labor reform partially halted by court intervention, increasing regulatory uncertainty.

Brazil

Decline in producer prices suggests easing inflationary pressures ahead, supporting expectations of price stability.

Mexico

Banxico nears the end of its rate-cutting cycle. Risks persist from low growth and elevated inflation, with weak economic activity and exports.

“The two greatest enemies of the equity fund investor are expenses and emotions.” – Jhon Bogle

Key upcoming events

• In the United States, Manufacturing PMI will be released on 04/06
• In the United States, March inflation data will be released on 04/10

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Note: Short week due to festivities.