Uriel Loredo

U.S. employment, inflation in Europe, and export rebounds in Mexico and China. 

Week of April 28 to May 2 

Market Highlights 
Here’s a summary of the most relevant developments that influenced global markets this week: 

• United States 
177,000 jobs were created in April, beating the 138,000 forecast. However, consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in five years, and Q1 2025 GDP contracted by 0.3%. 
Job openings (JOLTS) also dropped to a six-month low. 

• Europe 
Eurozone GDP grew 0.4% in the first quarter, exceeding projections. However, consumer inflation expectations rose to 2.9% over the next 12 months. 

• China 
The government reaffirmed its commitment to boosting growth through proactive fiscal measures. However, manufacturing activity declined again, reaching a two-year low. 

• Brazil 
The Central Bank emphasized a comprehensive approach amid early signs of economic cooling and inflation levels still above target. There’s growing optimism around the ratification of the Mercosur-EU agreement. 

• Mexico 
Preliminary Q1 2025 GDP grew 0.2%, avoiding a technical recession. Exports rose 9.6% year-over-year, and the trade surplus reached US$3.443 billion. Still, inflation edged up slightly to 3.96%. 

In investing, adaptability in times of change isn’t just an advantage—it’s essential for uncovering new opportunities. 

Key Upcoming Events 

• In the U.S., the ISM Services Index will be released – 05/05 
• In the U.S., the Fed will announce monetary policy – 05/07 

Monitor 

Strong U.S. sales and growth in China stand in contrast with ongoing trade tensions. 

Week of April 21–25 

Market Highlights 
Here’s a summary of the most relevant developments that influenced global markets this week: 

United States 

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that trade tensions with China could ease in the coming months, though a unilateral removal of tariffs is not under consideration. 
• The IMF revised its U.S. growth forecast downward to 1.8% for 2025, from a previous estimate of 2.7%. 
• Gold prices surpassed $3,500 per ounce for the first time in history. 

Europe 

• Economic activity in both the eurozone and the U.K. stagnated, impacted by trade-related uncertainty. 
• Nevertheless, Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index posted an unexpected increase in April, reflecting improved sentiment. 

China 

• For the sixth consecutive month, interest rates were left unchanged: the one-year LPR remains at 3.1%, and the five-year LPR at 3.6%. 
• The Chinese government ruled out resuming trade negotiations with the U.S. while tariffs remain in place. 

Brazil 

• The Finance Minister dismissed the likelihood of a recession, expressing confidence that global tariffs will not be sustained and emphasizing that inflation is approaching the Central Bank’s target. 

Mexico 

• Citi revised its 2025 growth forecast downward to 0.2% (from 0.3%) and now anticipates the benchmark interest rate to end the year at 7.75%. 
• Inflation in the first half of April rose to 3.96%, driven primarily by price increases in fruits and vegetables. 

In investing, adaptability in times of change isn’t just an advantage—it’s essential for uncovering new opportunities. 

 Key Upcoming Events 

• May 1: ISM Manufacturing Index (U.S.) 
• May 2: Employment indicators (U.S.) 

Monitor 

Week of April 14–17 

Here’s a quick look at the most relevant developments that shaped markets during this shortened week. 

United States 

• President Trump is considering temporary exemptions from the 25% tariffs on vehicles and auto parts. 
• Electronic devices like smartphones and computers have been temporarily exempted. 
• Retail sales rose 1.4% in March, beating expectations. 
• Fed Governor Waller noted that the inflationary impact of tariffs would likely be “transitory.” 

Europe 

• U.K. inflation fell to 2.6% in March, better than expected. 
• EU leaders believe most tariffs imposed on the bloc will remain in place. 
• The U.S. may temporarily ease some tariffs, but full removal isn’t expected. 

China 

• Exports rose 12.4% year-over-year in March, surpassing the 4.4% forecast. 
• First-quarter GDP grew 5.4% annually, despite ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. 

Brazil 

• Analysts expect economic growth to slow in the second half of the year, weighed down by high domestic interest rates and global trade friction. 

Mexico 

• The U.S. will impose a 20.91% tariff on Mexican tomato imports starting in July. 
• Finance executives warn that Mexico could lose its investment-grade rating by 2026 if trade relations with the U.S. deteriorate and fiscal deficits persist. 

Staying informed is key to understanding the ever-changing environment in which investments operate.

IMPORTANT EVENTS – CALENDAR 

• April 23: The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book economic report will be released. 
• April 22–24: Regional manufacturing reports will be published in the U.S. 

Monitor 

U.S. Imposes Global Tariffs 

Week of March 31 – April 4 

Here are the key events that influenced market sentiment this week: 

United States 

• The U.S. announced a new 10% blanket tariff on imports, with reciprocal measures for over 150 countries starting April 9. 
• Nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations in March, adding +228,000 jobs, though unemployment rose to 4.2%. 
• Manufacturing activity contracted for the first time this year, according to the ISM index. 

Europe 

• Inflation fell to 2.2% year-over-year, in line with expectations. 
• Markets anticipate a 25-bps rate cut at the ECB’s April 17 meeting. 
• The European Commission responded to U.S. tariffs and is preparing countermeasures. 

China 

• The manufacturing PMI reached a 12-month high, driven by a surge in new orders. 
• The country will face a 54% tariff on its exports to the U.S. and has retaliated with a 34% tariff on U.S. goods. 

Brazil 

• Industrial production unexpectedly declined by 0.1% month-over-month in February, dragged down by durable goods manufacturing. 

Mexico 

• February remittances totaled $4.459 billion, down 1% year-over-year. 
• Mexico and Canada were excluded from the U.S. tariff announcement. 
• The government introduced an 18-point plan to boost domestic consumption, investment, and social programs. 

In times of volatility, it’s essential not to be swayed by short-term noise—discipline and patience create long-term wealth. 

Important events:

• April 9: The U.S. Federal Reserve minutes will be released. 
• April 10: March inflation data will be published in the U.S. 

Monitor

Week of March 24 to 28 

Global markets in motion: Uncertainty in the U.S., recovery in Europe, challenges in China, and monetary adjustments in Mexico. 

• United States 
  Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to grow 7.7% year-over-year in Q1 2025, the slowest pace since Q3 2023. Trump announced a 25% tariff on all cars manufactured outside the country. Consumer confidence fell amid inflation fears. Q4 2024 GDP was revised upward, showing an annualized growth of 2.4%, driven by consumption. 

• Europe 
  Economic activity advanced at its fastest pace in seven months, led by the manufacturing sector. In the United Kingdom, inflation slowed to 2.8% year-over-year, better than expected. 

• China 
  In response to rising tariffs, Premier Li Qiang called for opening global markets. Industrial profits fell 0.3% year-over-year as of February. 

• Brazil 
  The government considers that conditions may arise to begin interest rate cuts in the second half of the year. 

• Mexico 
  Inflation in the first half of March moderated to 3.67% year-over-year. In line with expectations, the Bank of Mexico cut the benchmark rate by 50 basis points, bringing it to 9%. 

Staying informed will help you better understand the current macroeconomic context. 

Important events in the coming weeks 

• April 01: In the United States, the ISM Manufacturing Index will be released. 
• April 04: In the United States, employment figures will be published. 

Monitor