Uriel Loredo

September 22–26

General Summary: In an environment marked by monetary uncertainty and resilient consumption, the latest data and comments from financial authorities show a mixed picture: while the OECD revised global growth forecasts upward, some central banks remain cautious and highlight medium-term risks.

United States

• Fed Governor Stephen Miran stated that interest rates are too high and should be cut by up to 200 bps.
• Jerome Powell warned that equity valuations remain elevated and the path to rate cuts is uncertain.
• Q2 GDP was revised upward to 3.8% annualized, supported by consumer spending.
• OECD projects global growth of 3.2% in 2024 and 1.8% for the U.S. in 2025.

Europe

• UK retail sales rose 0.5% in August.
• Eurozone business activity reached its fastest pace in 16 months, led by Germany’s service sector.
• The Swiss National Bank held rates at 0% and warned about the potential impact of U.S. tariffs through 2026.

Japan

• Manufacturing contracted at the sharpest pace in six months.
• The services producer price index rose 2.7% YoY in August.

China

• Donald Trump advanced plans for U.S. investors to acquire TikTok’s U.S. operations from ByteDance, valued at $14 billion.

Mexico

• Banxico cut the policy rate to 7.5%, the lowest level in three years.
• Inflation in the first half of September stood at 3.74% YoY, in line with expectations.
• OECD revised growth to 0.8% in 2024 (from 0.4%) and to 1.3% in 2026 (from 1.1%).

“The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan. Stick to the good plan.” — John C. Bogle

Key Events:

• U.S.: Consumer Confidence — September 30
• U.S.: Employment Report — October 03

Monitor

Week: September 15–19 

Recent economic data and monetary policy decisions highlight diverging dynamics in the global landscape. From the Fed’s first rate cut of the year to slowing momentum in China and persistent inflation in the United Kingdom, markets are navigating a complex environment. 

United States: 

• In the United States, the Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut of the year, while retail sales surprised to the upside. 

Europe: 

• In the United Kingdom the inflation remained elevated. 
• In Germany  investor´s confidence improved unexpectedly. 

Asia: 

• China showed a slowdown in consumption and industry. 
• Japan recorded a sharp drop in exports to the U.S. 

Latin America: 

• Brazil kept its benchmark rate unchanged. 
• Mexico advanced with USMCA consultations and issued bonds to finance PEMEX. 

“I’ve usually used the phrase stay the course as one of the great rules of investment success.” — John C. Bogle 

Key Upcoming Events 

• In the United States, several Fed members are scheduled to speak — 09/22–24 
• In the United States, the final revision of Q2 2025 GDP will be released — 09/25 

Monitor

September 8–12 

U.S. inflation came in above expectations, but declines in producer prices and weak employment data reinforced expectations of a rate cut. In Latin America, Mexico and Brazil outlined new fiscal plans, while Europe and China continue to show trade fragility. 

• United States: Inflation rose 0.4% in August, but the PPI fell 0.1%, reinforcing expectations of a rate cut. Together with weak employment data, this has fueled anticipation of the first cut since last year. 

• Europe: German exports fell 0.6% month-over-month, including an 8% drop to the U.S. The ECB kept rates unchanged, while France faces new political challenges with the appointment of a new prime minister. 

• China: Exports rose 4.4% year-over-year, below the 5% forecast. Inflation fell -0.4% YoY, while producer prices dropped 2.9% YoY, deepening the disinflationary trend. 

• Japan: Q2 GDP was revised upward to 2.2% annualized, driven by stronger private consumption and inventory buildup. 

• Brazil: Inflation eased to 5.13% YoY. While headline prices declined 0.11% MoM, services remain under pressure. 

• Mexico: The 2026 economic package projects a lower deficit (4.16% of GDP) and growth between 1.8% and 2.8%. Pemex will receive $14 billion in support, and new tariffs on Chinese vehicles are under consideration. 

“Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy.” — John C. Bogle 

Key Events: 

• U.S. Retail Sales — 09/16 
• U.S. Monetary Policy Announcement — 09/18 

Monitor

Week: September 2-5  

Markets remain attentive to mixed signals on inflation, trade, and monetary policy. 

In a week marked by diverging economic data and monetary policy expectations, here are the key points investors closely followed: 

United States 

• Manufacturing contracted for the sixth consecutive month in August. 
• Fed Governor Christopher Waller expressed support for starting a rate-cut cycle in September, leaving room for further adjustments. 
• Markets are pricing in a 96% probability of a 25 bps cut at the September 18 meeting. 
• Employment slowed in August, with the unemployment rate edging up to 4.3% 

Europe 

• Manufacturing expanded in August for the first time since 2022. 
• Inflation ticked up slightly to 2.1% YoY, driven by unprocessed food and a smaller decline in energy costs. 

Asia 

• Japan’s manufacturing fell again in August due to weaker foreign demand and U.S. tariffs. The BoJ indicated hikes may continue, though without urgency. 
• China, the manufacturing PMI saw its fastest growth in five months, and services posted their best performance in over a year, supported by domestic consumption. 

Latin America  

• Brazil, the government completed its third external debt issuance of the year, including 30Y bonds at 7.5% and 5Y bonds at 5.2%. 
• Mexico, remittances fell 4.7% YoY in July, though they remain at historically high levels. Banxico raised GDP forecasts to 0.6% for 2025. Pemex launched a bond buyback of up to USD 9.9B, with a deadline of September 30. 

“Our favorite holding period is forever.” — Warren Buffett 

Upcoming Key events:  

• China export data — 09/08 
• U.S. inflation data — 09/11 

Monitor

Week: August 25–29 

Global markets reacted this week to renewed trade tensions, macroeconomic revisions, and political moves that increased uncertainty over the global economic outlook. In the U.S., stronger-than-expected data was overshadowed by political interference. In Europe, confidence indicators showed a fragmented recovery. Asia remains cautious amid weak industrial growth, while Latin America faces rising trade and political pressures. 

United States: 
• GDP for Q2 2025 was revised up to 3.3% annualized, supported by a 1.6% rise in consumer spending. 
• Jobless claims declined to 229,000. 
• President Trump dismissed Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud, raising concerns about central bank independence. 
• A 50% tariff on Indian exports went into effect, impacting $48.2 billion in trade. 

Europe: 
• Germany’s IFO business confidence index reached a 15-year high. 
• However, GfK consumer confidence declined for the third straight month. 
• The EU proposed lifting tariffs on U.S. industrial goods, including retroactive cuts on automobiles. 
• UK producer prices rose 1.9% YoY in June, the highest in two years. 

Asia: 
• Japan downgraded its corporate earnings outlook due to U.S. trade policies. 
• In China, industrial profits dropped 1.5% in July, despite a trade truce with the U.S. 

Argentina: 
• The Central Bank raised the reserve requirement by 3.5 percentage points to 48.5% amid electoral tensions and corruption allegations. 

Brazil: 
• Created 129,775 formal jobs in July, the lowest monthly figure since March. 
• Finance Minister Haddad may challenge U.S. tariffs in court. 

Mexico: 
• Steel exports to the U.S. dropped 16.6% YoY in H1. 
• New tariffs on Chinese imports planned in the 2026 budget proposal. 
• Mexico and Brazil signed agreements on biofuels and competitiveness during VP Alckmin’s visit. 

“Know what you own, and know why you own it.” — Peter Lynch 

Upcoming Key Events: 

• U.S.: ISM Manufacturing Index – September 2 
• U.S.: Employment report – September 5 

Monitor

Week of August 18–22 

The third week of August was marked by a modest flow of economic data, yet key signals began to shape the global monetary outlook. In the U.S., housing starts and building permits posted moderate gains, while the Fed minutes revealed ongoing concerns about inflation. Powell’s latest remarks hinted that conditions may soon warrant a policy rate adjustment. 

In Europe, inflation in the UK rose to its highest level in 18 months, even as Germany confirmed a contraction in its second-quarter GDP. Despite this, analysts expect the Bank of England to consider additional rate cuts before year-end. Meanwhile, Asia showed signs of softness: both China and Japan reported a decline in exports, and China’s youth unemployment remains elevated. 

In Latin America, institutional developments made headlines. Petrobras’ CEO resigned, while Pemex’s credit rating was placed under review following the release of its 2025–2035 strategic plan. As markets enter a more uncertain phase, attention now turns to Jackson Hole, where central bank narratives may set the tone for the remainder of the year. 

• United States: Fed minutes highlight inflation concerns and labor weakness. S&P affirms ‘AA+’ rating. Housing starts up 2.8%, permits up 0.5%. Powell suggests current conditions could justify a rate adjustment. 

• Europe: UK may cut rates again, despite 3.8% inflation. Germany contracts. EU limits tariffs on exports to the U.S. 

• Japan: Exports drop 2.6% YoY; exports to the U.S. fall 10.1%. 

• China: Youth unemployment rises to 17.8%. Benchmark rates unchanged. 

• Brazil: Petrobras CEO resigns. 

• Mexico: Moody’s places Pemex under review. Fitch sees neutral impact. Inflation surprises to the downside; Q2 GDP slightly revised. 

“Don’t bottom fish.” — Peter Lynch 

KEY EVENTS 

• U.S.: Consumer Confidence → August 25 
• U.S.: Q2 GDP Release → August 28 

Monitor